Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Safest picks in the first 10 rounds of a 10-team, half-PPR league
- - Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Safest picks in the first 10 rounds of a 10-team, half-PPR league
Dan TitusAugust 26, 2025 at 11:23 PM
When building a reliable fantasy football roster, targeting safe, high-floor players as a strategy should breed consistency in an otherwise volatile, ever-changing environment, especially in the early and middle rounds. These are the safest picks in each round of a 10-team, half-PPR league using 4for4 ADP data.
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Round 1: Bijan Robinson – RB, Atlanta Falcons
Robinson is a top-3 option in all leagues, offering the perfect blend of talent, volume, job security and youth. Bijan's FPPG increased from 12.8 to 18.1 from 2023 to 2024, which is a testament to the Falcons OC Zach Robinson using him as a feature-back, with a high workload plus high-value touches in both the run and pass game. Injuries have been piling up on Atlanta's offensive line, but it still ranks in the top 10 in the NFL coming into the season. The Falcons' commitment to establishing him as the focal point gives Bijan one of the highest floors among all first-round picks, without sacrificing elite weekly upside.
Round 2: Derrick Henry – RB, Baltimore Ravens
Few active players are as reliable and consistent as King Henry. Henry has seven straight seasons of scoring at least 10 touchdowns, while rushing for over 1,000 yards in six of his last seven seasons. He's coming off a monster first year with the Ravens, amassing over 2,100 scrimmage yards with 18 scores and 19.2 FPPG. Henry has shown zero signs of slowing down despite turning 32 years old in January. He's as safe as it comes in fantasy football.
Round 3: Lamar Jackson – QB, Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson offers one of the safest QB floors thanks to his dual-threat ability. Averaging over 57 rushing yards per game over the past five seasons, his legs alone provide near touchdown-level production weekly. Todd Monken's offensive system also led to the most prolific passing season of Jackson's career in 2024. You could go with Josh Allen here, but I'd go with Lamar.
Round 4: George Kittle – TE, San Francisco 49ers
Kittle is an elite TE option in a year where there is a clear tier drop after Brock Bowers, Trey McBride and Kittle. With San Francisco receivers hurt and holding out, his target share will surely spike, ensuring steady usage and volume this season. He's averaged over 1,000 yards with seven TDs over the past two years and is posting 67 yards per game with Brock Purdy under center. Consistently near the top in yards per route run, red-zone targets and total EPA at TE, Kittle offers a dependable floor, making him the safest Round 4 selection.
Round 5: Chuba Hubbard – RB, Carolina Panthers
It might be a surprise seeing Hubbard here. Still, the Panthers boast a near-top-10 offensive line and he's coming off logging a career-high 293 touches in 2024. Hubbard was among the league's best running backs in success rate and several rushing efficiency stats, too. I don't view Rico Dowdle as a legitimate threat to his workload after posting 1,000 scrimmage yards in consecutive years — with over 1,300 yards and 11 TDs in 2024. With uninspiring backfield competition and consistent usage, Hubbard projects as a steady RB2 who minimizes week-to-week volatility.
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Round 6: DeVonta Smith – WR, Philadelphia Eagles
After a successful Super Bowl run, the Eagles will likely pass more with defenses keying in on neutralizing their run game. Should that occur, Smith should exceed expectations relative to his ADP. He's quietly averaged over 67 receiving yards in his past three seasons with seven TDs. Even with touchdown variance, Smith's consistency makes him a safe, high-floor WR2 available in Round 6.
Round 7: Jaylen Waddle – WR, Miami Dolphins
With Tyreek Hill showing signs of decline and injuries lingering throughout the offensive skill positions, Miami's passing game is tilting toward Jaylen Waddle. He's earned the majority of positive offseason buzz and looks poised to step into a bigger role. Waddle averaged almost five more fantasy points per game with Tua Tagovailoa and had a slightly higher fantasy points per target than Hill in 2024. If you're going to invest in the Dolphins, the steady media drumbeat makes him the safest Round 7 option for consistent weekly production. He's also averaged 67 receiving yards per game over the past three seasons; however, any increase in red-zone work or opportunities can take him to the next level.
Round 8: Rome Odunze – WR, Chicago Bears
There have been plenty of reports about how Caleb Williams is struggling throughout the preseason; however, Odunze has been getting all the offseason praise.
It may feel risky, however, Odunze has been the top WR in training camp and heads into the season as a threat to DJ Moore's WR1 status on the Bears. I can't say confidently that he has a consistent floor, but given the options available in Round 8 of a 10-team league, I don't like any of the candidates over Odunze. His consistent floor, even as a young receiver, makes him the bold, safest upside pick of Round 8.
Round 9: Emeka Egbuka – WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Paired with Mike Evans, he fills the WR2 role with Chris Godwin still recovering from a couple of offseason ankle surgeries. The Bucs have a potent offense and Egbuka is already flashing tons of potential despite being a rookie. The decision to go with Egbuka was largely because Round 9 was littered with grizzled vets, committee environments that offered some relative floor but minimal upside. Egbuka's ADP continues to rise, so he may not even be available by Round 9 in 10-team leagues much longer.
Round 10: Jordan Mason – RB, Minnesota Vikings
Mason is my top backup this year. Even though he's in a committee, there's a ton of potential, plus Aaron Jones turns 31 in December. Mason was clearly ready to take on RB1 duties, as he averaged 107 scrimmage yards in his first seven starts for San Francisco last season. Now in Minnesota, he projects as a bruising early-down and potentially red-zone option alongside Aaron Jones.
🔁 Final Tip
When in doubt, draft touches, targets, and roles — not hype. These players may not always win you a week, but they won't lose it either.
Source: “AOL Sports”
