- - Predictions on evolving NFL betting trends: Will favorites dominate again?

Michael FiddleSeptember 3, 2025 at 10:00 PM

0

As the 2025 NFL season approaches, as a bettor and a fan I am eager to see if evolving trends continue to shape outcomes on the field. Let's dive into three questions (and some predictive answers).

1. Will favorites dominate again?

Last season, NFL favorites dominated both straight-up and against the spread (ATS). A closing line spread aims for a 50/50 split, and at -110 odds, bettors face a 52.38% breakeven rate. Typically, favorites and underdogs ATS hover around 50/50, with either side often below 52.38%. However, last season was an outlier. According to Evan Abrams, Research Director at Action Network, favorites hit at 56% ATS, surpassing the target even professional bettors aim for. Simply betting every favorite ATS yielded significant wins and a strong betting ROI. This was the second-highest ATS rate since 1990, with only 2005 being comparable. The moneyline told a similar story: Favorites won 72% of the time, the third-best rate for a full season since 1980.

[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season]

Recreational sportsbooks widely reported a net loss against NFL bettors last season, driven by favorites’ dominance and -EV moneyline parlays consistently hitting. The most notable game that took big public favorite action and sharp underdog action was the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Detroit Lions on Dec. 30, when the Lions won by 6, covering the spread and securing an outright win.

Will this trend continue?

My prediction is a resounding no. Past results don’t predict future outcomes in betting, especially ATS, where spreads incorporate extensive current data. The previous results were simply transitory. This doesn’t mean it’s time to bet underdogs, either. The market will continue pricing games with closing lines likely falling below 52.38% for both favorites and underdogs ATS. Bettors should focus on situational spots, backing either side to generate closing line value — the strongest indicator of successful betting and potential profits.

2. Will landing on 1 & 2 remain an increasingly common game margin?

It’s widely known that 3, 7, and 6 are the three most common NFL point differentials. This makes sense given the value of a field goal (3 points), a touchdown (6 points), and a touchdown with a point-after-touchdown (PAT, 7 points). These three numbers remain the most common NFL outcomes, but the trends beyond this have shifted in recent years. One and two are emerging as very frequent outcomes. Is there an actionable reason behind that or is this just a sample size outlier?

From 2003 to 2020, the next two most common outcomes were 14 and 10 points, which also makes sense — two touchdowns or a touchdown plus a field goal. However, over the last three seasons, a one-point differential has surged to become the fourth-most common outcome, and a two-point differential has surpassed both 14 and 10 as well.

So why are one- and two-point games becoming more common? And will that pattern continue?

I believe there’s a clear explanation, and I predict this absolutely will continue. The increase in these outcomes is due to rule changes and subsequent coaching decisions. The PAT attempt was moved from the 2-yard line to the 15-yard line, reducing PAT efficiency and increasing the rate of two-point conversion attempts. These changes have significantly impacted final score outcomes. We’ve all experienced the moment when a missed PAT prompts the thought, “This will come back to haunt them.”

Another crux is that almost all teams are starting to institute this advanced analytics strategy: When down 14 and scoring the first touchdown of a comeback, go for the 2-point conversion. If 2-point conversions have a 51% hit rate, then scoring on the first attempt sets you up for a game-winning touchdown (a one-point game). If the first 2-point conversation attempt fails, you try again and either go to overtime OR lose by two points. Since the conversation rate is above 50%, this wrinkle in coaching decisions has positive expected value.

For bettors, this shift has implications for gambling strategy. It means we should place greater value on lines of +/- 1 or 2 compared to previous years. According to my calculations, a line moving on or off a 1-point spread used to be worth 6 cents, but now it’s worth about 7.5 cents on the dollar. Understanding these values helps bettors choose the best available line when shopping around and calculate positive or negative expected value once a bet is placed. For example, if you bet -1 (-110) and the line closes at -1.5 (-110), you’ve gained 7 cents on the dollar in value!

3. Are teasers priced out?

This question addresses price sensitivity in betting, specifically with teasers, a bet type that trades points for volume. In the NFL — the only sport where teasers are generally advisable — the most common teaser bet adjusts the spread by 6 points and pairs two legs. The industry standard for a smart teaser bet, known as a Wong Teaser, is named after Stanford Wong, author of Sharp Sports Betting (2001). Wong’s math demonstrated long-term profitability by pairing legs where the 6-point adjustment moves the spread through the NFL’s most common margins of victory, 3 and 7.

For example, in Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season, using BetMGM’s current lines, a Wong Teaser could pair the Broncos (-7.5) vs. the Titans with the Dolphins (+1.5) at the Colts. This bet becomes Broncos (-1.5) and Dolphins (+7.5) parlayed together.

Less discussed is how the vig (or juice) for these bets has changed over the past two seasons. Wong’s math showed profitability at -120 odds when pairing legs that move through 3 and 7. However, finding -120 odds has become difficult recently, with most sportsbooks shifting to -130 or higher. This change often turns these bets from positive to negative expected value.

A few sportsbooks still offer -120 odds, but at -130 or higher, these bets are no longer worthwhile. The reason for that is because all odds are associated with an implied probability. At -120, a bettor must hit 54.55% to be profitable, but at -130 it becomes north of a 56.5% hit rate. If you can find -120 odds, I recommend adding every Wong teaser leg option to your bet slip, applying the 6-point teaser to move through 3 and 7, and using a Round Robin to place these bets. Last year blindly playing all 6-point, two-leg Wong Teaser candidates hit above 62% of the time. It was printing money regardless of the -120 or -130 rates, but that is likely not sustainable and we can expect this season to be over 54.5%, but below 56.5%.

Currently, nine Wong Teaser leg candidates are priced in the market: Broncos (-8), Dolphins (+1.5), Seahawks (+2.5), Lions (+2.5), Texans (+2.5), Ravens (+1.5), Panthers (+2.5), Falcons (+1.5), and Bears (+1.5). If you have access to a sportsbook offering -120 odds, I suggest placing 36 two-leg teaser bets, risking 0.25 units per bet, for a total of 9 units invested in +EV positions in the NFL market.

Original Article on Source

Source: “AOL Sports”