Trump's big tax bill is a win. It could also be a big problem for GOP
- - - Trump's big tax bill is a win. It could also be a big problem for GOP
Zac Anderson, Bart Jansen and Savannah Kuchar, USA TODAYJuly 1, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Sen. Thom Tillis was fed up, and took to the Senate floor to unload on President Donald Trump's megabill.
As the bill cleared a key hurdle, Tillis issued a warning. He attributed his rise to U.S. senator from North Carolina to blowback against former President Barack Obama's 2010 health care law, the Affordable Care Act, which fueled crushing Democratic losses across the country. Republicans won control of the U.S. House, stopping Obama's legislative agenda in its tracks.
The GOP is now rushing into similarly perilous territory, Tillis implied, by cutting more than $1 trillion from Medicaid.
"Republicans are about to make a mistake on health care and betraying a promise," he said.
More: Medicaid 'churn': How working Americans could lose coverage under Trump tax bill
The speech capped a consequential 24 hours for Tillis. He came out against Trump's legislation because of deep cuts to the federal health insurance program for low-income Americans, prompting the president to threaten a primary challenge. Tillis then announced he wouldn't seek reelection in 2026.
Tillis' experience sums up the explosive politics surrounding a nearly 1,000-page bill that has deeply divided the GOP.
Many Republicans are touting it as a landmark achievement, but others are worried the unpopular measure hurts vulnerable people, goes against the party's working-class outreach, balloons the deficit and could cost Republicans dearly in the next election.
Elon Musk, the multibillionaire former Trump adviser, is threatening to primary GOP lawmakers and even start a new political party over his deficit concerns.
Looming over the debate is a president who threatens retribution against those who oppose him, and is pushing to have the legislation on his desk by July 4. Term-limited and free from facing voters again, Trump is looking for a legacy achievement. His supporters predict the bill will prove out over time.
Sen. Jim Justice, R-West Virginia, compared the controversy to someone sticking their hand in a bucket of water and jerking it out.
More: Thom Tillis, key Republican holdout on Trump's tax bill, won't seek reelection
"The water's turbulent for a little while but then it'll just settle right out," he told USA TODAY. "That's what I think will happen."
The bill narrowly cleared the Senate by a 51-50 vote on July 1 - three Republicans and every Democrat opposed it ,and Vice President JD Vance had to break the tie in a dramatic flourish - after a different version earlier passed the House. It now heads back to the House for final approval, where lawmakers have expressed concerns that the spending cuts either go too far, or not far enough.
Trump said July 1 it would be "wise" for Republicans to get on board.
"It's a great bill," Trump said, adding: "Great for the border, great for low taxes, and I would say that they have to do it."
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-North Carolina, listens during a Senate Judiciary Hearing on June 18, 2025.
Despite some of the GOP resistance, bucking the president is politically perilous – as Tillis experienced − and Trump appears poised for a major legislative victory.
The bill would enact key campaign promises into law – including cutting taxes on tipped wages and overtime pay and greatly expanded deportation efforts, which would receive a massive funding increase. It also makes permanent the sweeping tax reductions Trump passed in 2017, cementing his record as a big tax cutter.
Trump launched his second term with an aggressive policy agenda, but has relied on executive orders that can easily be undone if Democrats reclaim the White House. His megabill – dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act - is a more lasting achievement, one that will help define his legacy.
Yet like other major policy proposals from past presidents, the politics of the legislation have been difficult to navigate. Obama's health care bill divided Democrats, with 34 voting against it in the House.
To help offset lost tax revenue, Trump's bill makes big cuts, most notably to Medicaid.
'The soul of the Republican party'
That has some Republicans nervous. Any political victory from the bill could be short lived if it results in major blowback in the 2026 midterms. The legislation could complicate the GOP's pitch to blue collar voters.
"This is a debate over the soul of the Republican Party," said Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Missouri. "Are we going to be a working class party or not?"
More: Religious leaders protest GOP tax, Medicaid bill: 'It hurts working people'
Democrats are eager to run against the bill, casting it as a largely benefiting the wealthy while hurting the poor.
"The different ways in which this bill bites working families over and over is going to make it a problem for Republicans in the House and the Senate all the way through November of 2026 and beyond," Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts, told USA TODAY.
Poorest households lose under the Trump bill
An analysis of the House bill released last month by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found that the poorest households would lose about $1,600 a year under the legislation, largely because of cuts to Medicaid and food aid. The wealthiest households would gain about $12,000 a year, according to the CBO. The Senate bill has more aggressive cuts than the House.
The CBO estimates that nearly 12 million people would lose Medicaid under the Senate bill, with the program facing roughly $1 trillion in cuts.
More than 250 people protested the deep cuts across from the Capitol at the steps of the Supreme Court on June 30, surrounded by dozens of caskets covered with statistics of how many people would lose Medicaid and food assistance in each state.
The crowd chanted "you will not kill us and our people without a fight."
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) speaks during a rally opposing House Republicans tax proposal prior to the final House vote on Capitol Hill on May 21, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jemal Countess/Getty Images for Families Over Billionaires)
Warren said criticism of the bill is resonating not just in blue states, but also red states, pointing to polling showing it's broadly unpopular. She recently drew 1,500 people to a town hall in Tennessee blasting the legislation.
"When people know anything about the Republican tax bill they hate it," she told USA TODAY.
Republican lawmakers have largely rallied around Trump, accusing Democrats of misrepresenting the legislation.
Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, said individual elements of the bill poll well but conceded the GOP has some "work to do" to sell the legislation.
Trump ran a populist campaign that targeted blue collar voters with proposals such as tax cuts on tips and overtime, and Republicans have pointed to those provisions in the bill to counter criticism that it benefits the wealthy.
But some Republican lawmakers worry cutting Medicaid could undermine GOP inroads to the working class.
"You cannot be a working-class party if you are taking away healthcare for working class people," Hawley said over the weekend.
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) reacts as he speaks to media members on the day on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 28, 2025.
Yet Hawley still supported the legislation, a sign of how intense the pressure is to deliver for Trump, who also is facing resistance from fiscal conservatives over projections the bill will increase the federal budget deficit by $3.3 trillion.
Deficit hawks in the Senate ultimately caved and voted for the bill, and now attention turns to the House, where critics of the legislation's fiscal impact are being egged on by billionaire Elon Musk.
"It is obvious with the insane spending of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS that we live in a one-party country – the PORKY PIG PARTY!!" Musk wrote in a June 30 post on X. "Time for a new political party that actually cares about the people."
Musk threated primary challenges against GOP lawmakers who support the bill.
Trump, meanwhile, is urging his party to fall in line and lashing out at dissenters such as Tillis and Rep. Thomas Massie, who voted against the legislation in the House.
In the process, some lawmakers are bowing out. In addition to Tillis, Rep. Don Bacon, a moderate Nebraska Republican who has criticized Trump's megabill, announced he won't seek reelection.
Losing lawmakers with bipartisan appeal could make it harder for the GOP to maintain their majorities.
The North Carolina Senate race already was a toss up before Tillis resigned, noted University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato. It's even more competitive now, he said in a social media post.
"Dems should send Trump a fruit basket of thanks," Sabato said.
Contributing: Sarah Wire
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump's big bill is a win. But it could also be a big problem for GOP
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